Last year I went 16 for 21 in my Oscar predictions. I nailed all the top categories (which pretty much everyone always does) and missed Best Makeup, Score, Sound Editing and Mixing and Foreign Language Film. However, looking back, I would have gotten both Score and Makeup correctly if I had gone more with what I thought the Academy would do based on knowledge of how they work and not due to what I thought to be the logical choice. This year, I am throwing logic out the window, reading the tea leaves and checking the Oscar winds. Outside of a few categories it looks like the majority of these races are all sewn up and while some last minute dirty tactics were employed to derail the current Best Picture front-runner, I still see it sticking it out.
What I have done below is listed my #1 pick in the top eight categories followed by the runners-up. On top of that I took a look at the right here.
Let’s get to it…
Best Picture
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- Avatar
- Precious
- Up in the Air
- An Education
- Up
- The Blind Side
- District 9
- A Serious Man
Best Actor
- Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
- Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
- George Clooney (Up In the Air)
- Colin Firth (A Single Man)
- Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Best Actress
- Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
- Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
- Carey Mulligan (An Education)
- Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
- Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Best Supporting Actor
- Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
- Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
- Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
- Matt Damon (Invictus)
- Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Best Supporting Actress
- Mo’Nique (Precious)
- Anna Kendrick (Up In the Air)
- Vera Farmiga (Up In the Air)
- Penelope Cruz (Nine)
- Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)
Best Director
- Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
- James Cameron (Avatar)
- Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
- Jason Reitman (Up In the Air)
- Lee Daniels (Precious)
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up In the Air)
- Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious)
- Nick Hornby (An Education)
- Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell (District 9)
- Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche (In the Loop)
Best Original Screenplay
Reader Polling currently has Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds taking this by a large margin.
- Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)
- Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
- Joel and Ethan Coen (A Serious Man)
- Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy (Up)
- Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman (The Messenger)
As for the rest of the categories here how I see things turning out, with readers currently disagreeing with me in five categories.
- Best Animated Feature Film: Up
- Best Art Direction: Avatar
- Best Cinematography: Avatar
- Best Costumes: The Young Victoria
- Best Documentary (feature): The Cove
- Best Documentary (short subject): The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
- Best Film Editing: Avatar
Reader Polling: The Hurt Locker - Best Foreign Language Film: El Secreto De Sus Ojos (The Secret in Their Eyes)
Reader Polling: The White Ribbon - Best Makeup: Star Trek
- Best Music (Original Score): Up
- Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from Crazy Heart
- Best Sound Editing: Avatar
- Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
Reader Polling: Avatar - Best Visual Effects: Avatar
- Best Short Film (Live-Action): The Door
Reader Polling: Miracle Fish and The Door are tied - Best Short Film (Animated): A Matter of Loaf and Death
Based on everything above my winner counts look like this:
- Avatar – 5 Oscars
- The Hurt Locker – 4 Oscars
- Crazy Heart – 2 Oscars
- Up – 2 Oscars
- The Blind Side – 1 Oscar
- The Cove – 1 Oscar
- The Door – 1 Oscar
- Inglourious Basterds – 1 Oscar
- The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant – 1 Oscar
- A Matter of Loaf and Death – 1 Oscar
- Precious – 1 Oscar
- El Secreto De Sus Ojos – 1 Oscar
- Star Trek – 1 Oscar
- Up in the Air – 1 Oscar
- The Young Victoria – 1 Oscar
Remember to come back on Sunday night, March 7, as I will be here live-blogging the entire show as well as have updated and live winner results. I will also be tweeting the results at the RopeofSilicon account on Twitter.
Also remember, reader polling to predict the Oscar winners will be open until midnight on March 6. If you haven’t voted yet click here and let your voice be heard.
