Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekendâs new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Thursday night for final projections based on actual theatre counts.
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Updated Predictions and Comparisons â
1. Hop (Universal) â $25.8 million N/A
2. Source Code (Summit) â $15.5 million N/A
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules (20th Century Fox) â $11.5 million -52%
4. Insidious (Film District) â $10.6 million N/A
5. Limitless (Relativity Media) â $10.0 million -34%
6. The Lincoln Lawyer (Lionsgate) â $7.8 million -27%
7. Sucker Punch (Warner Bros.) â $7.3 million -62%
8. Rango (Paramount) â $6.2 million -37%
9. Paul (Universal) â $4.7 million -40%
10. Battle: Los Angeles (Sony) â $3.8 million -50%
Weekend Overview
April is the first month of spring and also the last before the summer box office season, which may be why this month is crazy busy with nearly 65 movies being released in various capacities in hopes of making some sort of impact before the big summer movies get all the attention.
Hoping to get an early jump* on Easter, Universalâs family comedy Hop introduces the son of the Easter Bunny to the screen voiced by British comic Russell Brand, hoping to capitalize on the connection to Universalâs 2010 animated hit Despicable Me while combining CG animation and live action thatâs proven so successful with Alvin and the Chipmunks. (The movie is directed by Hop helmer Tim Hill in fact.) The familiarity with the Easter bunny and the sense of humor should help entice family audiences, especially those with younger children, into theaters this weekend although itâs more likely this one will spread its business out over the next couple weeks and have a peak on Easter weekend proper. (*This was an unintentional pun, honest!)
Jake Gyllenhaal and Michelle Monaghan team for Source Code (Summit), the second film from Moon director Duncan Jones, which will hope to follow the path of other recent hit sci-fi thrillers like The Adjustment Bureau and Limitless. The movie has been fairly well marketed to the point where it can bring in a wider range of audiences than some of the other offerings this week, particularly older moviegoers who have been the bread and butter of the box office this year so far. One can expect a moderately decent opening based on the premise with a good percentage of women who may not be interested in some of the other movies in theaters.
Saw creators James Wan and Leigh Whannell are back with their third horror collaboration Insidious (FilmDistrict), a haunted house thriller starring Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne that will hope to bring in some of the fans of the Australian duoâs previous franchise as well as producer Oren Peliâs breakout horror hit Paranormal Activity. Even so, without a big name draw and being the first film from a new distributor, thereâs a chance Insidious could make a play for third, though itâs more likely to end up in fourth.
That said, weâre not expecting either of last weekâs movies to hold up their business for a second week, being that they both have built-in audiences that probably went out to see the movie in their opening weekend.
This weekâs âChosen Oneâ is Quentin Dupieuxâs quirky comedy Rubber (Magnet Labs) with an Honorable Mention to Susanne Bierâs Oscar-winning In a Better World (Sony Pictures Classics), although sadly, weâve been sidelined by CinemaCon and havenât been able to write reviews.
This weekend last year was Easter weekend and Louis Letterierâs remake of Clash of the Titans (Warner Bros.), starring Sam Worthington, Liam Neeson and Gemma Arterton, opened big with $61.2 million and another $2.5 million from Thursday night previews, bolstered by the decision to convert it into 3D at the last minute following the success of Avatar, something that began the slow backlash against 3D. Media mogul Tyler Perry was hoping to find success by offering his sequel Tyler Perryâs Why Did I Get Married Too? (Lionsgate) as counter-programming and it did decently with $29.2 million, Perryâs third-biggest opening to date. Opening on Wednesday, Miley Cyrus starred in the drama The Last Song (Disney), which debuted with $9 million on Thursday and Friday and then another $16 million over the weekend to take fourth place. The Top 10 grossed $166 million, but itâs not really a good comparison for this weekend, since it was Easter and it had a higher-profile event movie released.
Analysis:
As we move into April and summer is just around the corner, studios are still trying to bring in the families whose business has often thrived during the slower movie months, and Hop is one from Universal that tries to capitalize on the success of the upcoming Easter holiday and the success of previous holiday-related family comedies. Most notably, Tim Allen had great success with his three âThe Santa Clauseâ movies released over the course of ten years, mostly in November, and Will Ferrellâs first big comedy Elf also tied into the Christmas holiday season.
The main character is voiced by Russell Brand, who has been all over the place doing promotion for this and his upcoming comedy remake Arthur, which opens next week. Brandâs previous comedies were both R-rated with 2008âs Forgetting Sarah Marshall spinning off into Get Him to the Greek last year, both which grossed roughly $60 million, but he also appeared in Adam Sandlerâs Bedtime Stories which was a moderate family holiday hit. In general, his audience probably is in the 17 to 30 range and not much older, but itâs unlikely that many of them, other than young parents, might be interested in the movie for that reason. The main human character is James Marsden, best known for playing Cyclops in the âX-Menâ movies but whom has been doing more comedy in recent years, most notably in Enchanted, 27 Dresses and Sex Drive.
Before last yearâs Despicable Me, Universal never really had a huge family hit, mainly settling for smaller breakouts like the Mr. Bean and Nanny McPhee movies, but they certainly have gotten the bug from their animated blockbuster, which may be why theyâre marketing Hop to make absolutely sure people know itâs from the same people who made that one. Theyâre also focusing on the interaction between CG and human characters thatâs worked so well in previous family hits, Alvin and the Chipmunks and Garfield â in fact, director Tim Hill helmed the former and the less successful sequel to the latter. But what theyâre doing thatâs worked really well for them is to create a synergy with the various television networks theyâre partnered with like NBC, Bravo, etc, by running spots for the movie during the more popular shows, which helps raise awareness if nothing else.
Itâs somewhat weird that the movie is being released so far in advance of Easter weekend where a movie like this could seriously clean up, but maybe Universal is hoping to get an advance bit of business before Foxâs Rio, which opens on April 15. The film should do well enough the next couple weeks to be able to maintain business, possibly dropping on the weekend of the 15th, but then recovering over Easter weekend proper.
Why I Should See It: If you have small kids looking forward to Easter, theyâll be able to see the Easter Bunny three weeks early!
Why Not: How many adults want to watch another cute kidsâ movie with CG animals?
Projections: $25 to 28 million opening weekend and $90 million total.
Source Code (Summit)
Starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Michelle Monaghan, Vera Farmiga, Jeffrey Wright
Directed by Duncan Jones (Moon); Written by Ben Ripley (Species III and Species: The Awakening, both straight-to-video releases)
Genre: Science-Fiction
Rated PG-13
Tagline: âMake Every Second Countâ
Plot Summary: Helicopter pilot Captain Colter Stevens (Jake Gyllenhaal) wakes up on a train speeding through Chicago sitting across from a beautiful woman (Michelle Monaghan) heâs never met but before he can figure whatâs going on, the train blows up. He then learns that he is part of a new experimental military program that can send his consciousness into another personâs body and heâs been assigned to find out who blew up the train and put a stop to their other terrorist activities.
Analysis:
So far, 2011 has been a banner year for science-fiction with a number of breakouts in whatâs been a generally down year at the box office, and Source Code will hope to continue the streak began by The Adjustment Bureau and Limitless, both which took big ideas that normally might not be considered very mainstream, but marketed them well enough to get moviegoers interested enough to choose them over more conventional offerings.
A big draw for the movie is that itâs the second film by director Duncan Jones, who received a lot of accolades and awards for his debut Moon. Even if it never got a very big theatrical release in the States, many people discovered it on DVD and Netflix streaming after the fact giving them some idea of the quality of the filmmaking to expect.
More than that this is another vehicle for Jake Gyllenhaal, the 30-year-old actor who has been working long enough in Hollywood to be considered by many as an A-list actor although heâs yet to show any sort of consistency in the quality or success of the films heâs done. Last year was not a good one for Gyllenhaal as his foray into action-fantasy with Jerry Bruckheimerâs Prince of Persia and his romantic teaming with Anne Hathaway for Love and Other Drugs also didnât fare particularly well. Gyllenhaalâs biggest movie to date is Roland Emmerichâs The Day After Tomorrow, his only movie to bring in over $100 million, but long-time fans of the actor will probably remember his big break in Richard Kellyâs Donnie Darko, another movie that deals with sci-fi elements. He also can be taken seriously as a dramatic actor when he appears in movies like the Oscar-nominated Brokeback Mountain and Jim Sheridanâs remake of Susanne Bierâs Brothers.
For Source Code, heâs joined by Michelle Monaghan who has surprisingly been more successful in the action genre with appearances in J.J. Abramsâ Mission: Impossible III and the D.J. Caruso sci-fi action-thriller Eagle Eye, which is as good a precursor for Source Code as any. The cast is rounded out by Oscar-nominee Vera Farmiga and Jeffrey Wright.
Although science fiction is doing well this year, even with stranger ideas, Source Code fits in more with some of the movies that used time travel as a premise with connections to the likes of Terry Gilliamâs 12 Monkeys, Denzel Washingtonâs DĂ©jĂ vu and Ashton Kutcherâs early hit The Butterfly Effect, while also offering similar ideas as the likes of Groundhog Day or the âFinal Destinationâ movies.
Summit Entertainment has now been around for a couple of years but they still havenât had that many breakout hits beyond their non-âTwilightâ movies, although their previous foray into sci-fi action with Knowing starring Nicolas Cage was a solid hit a few years back. They also had a hit with the action-comedy Red last year, which shows that theyâre getting better at marketing their movies, not that their recent bomb Drive Angry, also starring Cage, offers any proof of that.
Either way, Source Code is likely to get the best reviews of the weekend among the wide releases even if itâs still somewhat of an unknown in where it might fall, because Gyllenhaal isnât that consistent a draw and the movieâs success relies just as much on whether audiences are ready for another sci-fi thriller despite others still being in theaters. With that in mind, it should do decent if not spectacular business, but should do well enough to take second place and possibly get some decent legs.
Why I Should See It: This is a great second feature by Duncan Jones and fans of science fiction should appreciate the premise.
Why Not: Sci-fi fans also might be prone to pick it to death to find all the anomalies and flaws in the premise.
Projections: $14 to 16 million opening weekend and roughly $40 million total
Insidious (FilmDistrict)
Starring Patrick Wilson, Rose Byrne, Lin Shaye, Ty Simpkins, Barbara Hershey, Leigh Whannell
Directed by James Wan (Saw, Death Sentence, Dead Silence); Written by Leigh Whannell (Saw, Dead Silence)
Genre: Horror
Rated PG-13
Tagline: âItâs Not the House Thatâs Hauntedâ
Plot Summary: After moving into a new home, a married couple with three kids (Patrick Wilson, Rose Byrne) start experiencing odd occurrences, which culminates in their eldest son Dalton (Ty Sympkins) falling into a coma-like sleep and menacing beings appearing who want to claim his body.
Interview with James Wan and Leigh Whannell
Interview with Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne
Analysis:
What could end up being the sleeper or breakout of the weekend is this distinctive take on the haunted house horror film by director James Wan and screenwriter/actor Leigh Whannell, the Australian duo who first made waves in 2004 with their indie horror flick Saw, a movie which led to a hugely successful franchise, which only fell apart in its last two installments.
Actors Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne both have some experience with genre films with Wilson having starred in Zack Snyderâs Watchmen a few years back and Byrne starring in the Summit sci-fi thriller Knowing (mentioned above) and Wolfgang Petersonâs action movie Troy. Horror films donât necessarily need actors of their caliber, though they do bring a higher quality of acting to the film even if neither has proven themselves to be the type of names who get people into theaters.
On the one hand, Insidious could be seen as the strongest offering of the weekend due to the box office success of independently-made horror (and particularly PG-13 horror), something thatâs had a boom recently with Oren Peliâs low-budget Paranormal Activity famously being picked up by Paramount and having huge success and last yearâs sequel following suit. In fact, Insidious is co-produced by Peli, which is just another way in which the film can be marketed to prospective audiences. Another example is the low-budget The Last Exorcism, which Lionsgate released to great success last summer.
Insidious is the first release by Graham Kingâs new distribution company FilmDistrict (headed by former Newmarket, Picturehouse and Apparition exec Bob Berney), and while theyâve been going out whole hog in advertising the movie by wisely focusing on the previous success of the filmmakers, being a new distributor means they were only able to rustle up roughly 2,500 theatres, less than the other two new movies. There should be a lot of support among the genre crowd, but this will be appealing to younger audiences with older ones probably being too cynical to check it out, which is likely to limit the movieâs opening weekend a bit.
Why I Should See It: See my review; if you like scary movies, this one is one of the scariest and creepiest youâll see this year.
Why Not: If youâre a scaredy-pants who doesnât want to spend sleepless nights worried about never waking up.
Projections: $10 to 12 million opening weekend and roughly $35 million total.
THE CHOSEN ONE:
This week we had a tough choice between two rather unconventional films, both so original and unlike anything weâve seen in recent years that they both deserve respect, but in the most shocking twist since the Oscars, weâre going with the third film from the electronica artist known as Mr. Ouizo⊠(Unfortunately, this week has got away from us while weâve been at CinemaCon, and weâre not sure if weâll be able to review either, but check out our feature interviews to learn more about them.)
Rubber (Magnet Labs)
Starring Stephen Spinella, Jack Plotnick, Wings Hauser, Roxane Mesquida, Ethan Cohn, Charley Koontz, Daniel Quinn
Written and directed by Quentin Dupieux (Steak, nonfilm)
Genre: Comedy, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: âAre You Tired of the Expected?â (YES!)
Plot Summary: A common rubber tire suddenly gains sentience as well as telekinetic powers that it uses to blow up the heads of humans it encounters.
Interview with Quentin Dupieux
Rubber opens in New York, L.A. and Austin, Texas on Friday following its run on Video on Demand.
Honorable Mention:
In A Better World (Sony Pictures Classics)
Starring Markus Rygaard William, Johnk Nielsen, Mikael Persbrandt, Wil Johnson, Trine Dyrholm, Ulrich Thomsen
Directed by Susanne Bier (Open Hearts, Brothers, After the Wedding ; Written by Susanne Bier, Anders Thomas Jensen
Genre: Drama
Rated R
Tagline:
Plot Summary: Two schoolboys from different backgrounds, Christian and Elias (Markus Rygaard William, Johnk Nielsen), bond over how they fight back against a school bully, but when Eliasâ father (Mikael Persbrandt) is himself attacked by an alpha male he encounters on the street, Christian decides that revenge is better than walking away.
In a Better World opens in New York and L.A. on Friday
Also in Limited Release:
James (Slither) Gunn returns on his dark comic take on superheroes Super (IFC) starring Rainn Wilson as a man whose wife (Liv Tyler) leaves him for a local gangster played by Kevin Bacon, so he decides to don a costume to become a superhero and win her back. Along for a ride is an impressionable comic book worker, played by Ellen Page, who urges him to let her be his sidekick. It opens in New York, Boston, Washington DC and L.A. on Friday and in more theaters over the course of April. You can see the full list of theaters here.
Clive Owen and Catherine Keener star in the drama Trust (Millennium Films), directed by David Schwimmer, about a family torn apart when their teen daughter (newcomer Liana Liberato) is the victim of an online sexual predator whom she refuses to implicate in the crime. It opens in select cities on Friday.
Adrien Brody stars in Michael Greenspanâs thriller Wrecked (IFC Films) about a man trapped in a car wreck at the bottom of a cliff who needs to find a way to survive until heâs able to free himself. It opens in New York on Friday at the IFC Center, as doesâŠ
Aaron Schockâs doc Circo (First Run Features) follows the Ponce family circus traveling through Mexico trying to make ends meet despite financial hard times and an internal family conflict. It opens in New York on Friday.
Director John Stockwell (Turistas, Into the Blue, Blue Crush) returns with Cat Run (Llleju Productions) about two childhood best friends who form a detective agency with their first case involving a high-class escort who informs them of a cover-up involving the mob, a corrupt Senator and an assassin.
Korean filmmaker Hyung Rae Shim (Dragon Wars) returns with The Last Godfather (Roadside Attractions) starring Harvey Keitel as Don Carini a Mafini godfather who back in the â50s fell in love with an Asian woman whose son (Shim) is appointed as his predecessor as the head of the family, much to the consternation of Cariniâs main competition. It opens in select cities on Friday.
Carolina Bottaroâs directorial debut Queen to Play (Zeitgeist Films) stars Kevin Kline and Sandrine Bonnaire, the latter as a French chambermaid who learns she has a knack for chess so she ravels to Corsica to study with a reclusive American doctor (Kline). After premiering at the Tribeca Film Festival two years ago, it opens in New York and L.A.
Brady Corbet and David (âGossip Girlsâ) Call star in Alistair Banksâ drama Two Gates of Sleep (Borderline Films) about two brothers in the South whose mother is dying, so they spend time trying to make her last days comfortable and happy before they bury her. It opens at the ReRun Gastropub Theater in Brooklyn on Friday.
Australian Joe Cross was 310 lbs. and loaded up on steroids when he decided to take control of his life and regain his healthy, trading in junk food and pills for a healthier diet, all of which is documented in his film Fat, Sick and Nearly Dead, which opens at New Yorkâs Quad Cinema on Friday.
Next week, the month of April continues to be crazy busy with two new comedies, Russell Brand in the remake of Arthur (Warner Bros.), Danny McBride, James Franco and Natalie Portman in the medieval comedy Your Highness (Universal), the action-thriller Hanna (Focus Features) and the true-life drama of Soul Surfer (Sony/Tristar Pictures).
Copyright 2011 Edward Douglas.