The Equalizer is going to be first among equals this weekend, even with that R rating, and even with those faltering reviews. It runs a bit over two hours, but it’s a romp, and it should do fairly well with the menfolk. For precedent it seems like Two Guns is our best bet, that opened at $27 million about thirteen months ago. I don’t have much imagination, so that’s where I’m putting this one too. At a $55 million budget this one will come down to international dollars, but if you watch the trailers you’ll quickly figure out not much of that money will be coming from Russia.
The BoxTrolls is our next topic for discussion, it immediately brings to mind Frankenweenie and ParaNorman. Neither of those opened particularly strong, but there’s some hope in late September, just last year Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs owned at the box office. That one had a pretty huge book behind it though, a strike against our troll pals. I’m going to middle this one a bit at $17.3 million, firmly in second place, but not making too much of a splash.
Let’s go with holdover numbers now, starting with The Maze Runner. Gotta be frontloaded, right? Also, when was the last time the top three at the box office started with the word “the”? There’s a fun research project for you. As for The Maze Runner, Ender’s Game fell 62 percent after a similar opening. I actually liked that movie though, and I’m not sure I’d feel the same way about The Maze Runner. Still, I’m only dropping it 54 percent, down to $15 million. My theory is going less high concept will help this film out.
Finally, A Walk Among the Tombstones. Liam Neesons will draw internationally, which was clearly their plan, because the domestic gross is going to end up being pretty paltry. Americans don’t seem to be in to walking all up in them tombstones. Go figure. Still, this shouldn’t dip harder than 48 percent because it’s aimed at a slightly older demo, one that doesn’t rush right out. $6.6 million is my call, fourth or fifth place is the best it can hope for.
Current Record: 44-89-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- The BoxTrolls: N/A
- The Equalizer: N/A
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
