6.
Moneyball takes the field
September 23
Another film on everyone’s early prediction lists and it’s easy to see why. Scripted by Oscar winners Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, directed by Oscar nominee Bennett Miller (Capote) and starring two-time Oscar nominee Brad Pitt and Oscar winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman this seems like a film that can’t fail, though I’m afraid it can… at least in Oscar terms.
Unlike small indie films like The Hurt Locker and Winter’s Bone, the Academy very often penalizes big studio films that underperform at the box-office. If you don’t believe me, look how fast Clint Eastwood’s Changling fell from Oscar contender to Awards Season afterthought when it failed to do well at the box-office two years ago. Moneyball won’t need to be a smash hit to stay in Awards contention but if it totally bombs look for it disappear from the lists of serious contenders by the end of the month. We should have some idea as to what kind of contender it is soon enough as it screens for press the first day of the Toronto Film Festival on September 8.
7.
Machine Gun Preacher opens fire in theaters
September 23
Another long shot with Awards hopes hits the theaters. The difference between Machine Gun Preacher and other longshots is that Relativity Media, who produced the film, is like a wounded animal that needs something to pump up it’s sagging fortunes. That means they will probably commit serious money to an Oscar campaign if the film gets any traction with reviewers and audiences. Even if the film doesn’t appear to be a typical Oscar bait flick on paper.
8.
50/50 gets released
September 30
This is another film that will need some love to get into the Oscar race. Already a darling among the film blogger crowd, the jury is still out on how it will play with mainstream audiences.
Terminal disease dramadies have almost become a genre of their own. The problem is, while Hollywood seems to love making them, audiences don’t seem interested in seeing them. Who can blame them? With the world in the state it is in, most folks don’t really want to see Adam Sandler play acting cancer or Anne Hathaway getting sexy with lupus. The question then becomes will they want to see Joseph Gordon-Levitt with cancer? I have serious doubts (though Brad has already said he really enjoyed this film). Come September 30 we’ll all know if I’m right or wrong.
9.
Take Shelter in limited release
September 30
Take Shelter is a film that many people think could be this year’s Winter’s Bone (Brad, however, is not among them). It features Michael Shannon who is earning plenty of praise for his performance (even Brad agrees with that) and Jessica Chastain, who only seems to be in every film made this year.
The biggest curiosity I have, is just how does a studio try and campaign to earn Jessica Chastain a nomination? Let’s see, do you try to get her a supporting nod for The Help, Take Shelter or The Tree of Life? Or maybe one for Coriolanus, The Debt, Texas Killing Fields or, if it makes it to theaters this year, The Wettest County in the World. Any chance she just fills all five slots?
10.
The box-office performance of
The Help
Every weekend in September
The Help may not be the darling of the East Coast critics but it is killing it at the box-office and making a lot of noise in mainstream Hollywood. With it’s A+ Cinemascore (one of only 16 films to ever accomplish that feat) and it’s well demonstrated box-office legs it could end up remaining in the top ten for the entire month of September. That will make it the buzz film of the fall if it isn’t already. The Academy doesn’t strictly reward box-office when handing out Oscar but don’t think for a minute it doesn’t pay attention, especially when a film continues to perform week after week like The Help has been doing.
At the end of the month we’ll know a lot more about which films still have a good chance at Oscar gold. Of course there are several others that will come out later in the year that will have a say in who wins. Films such as Clint Eastwood’s J. Edgar and The Iron Lady featuring Meryl Streep to name a couple. But it is definitely game on for this year’s Oscars starting now.
Look for Brad to begin his Oscar predictions very soon as well as his dispatches from Toronto starting September 8. You can find all of his Toronto coverage leading up to and during the Festival right here.
