Tom Cruise’s latest Mission: Impossible set to open at #1 but how big will that opening be?
See? That’s what happens when we get two weekends without a single sequel or remake, but at least we’re following last week’s relatively weak offerings with a sequel AND a remake, because let’s face it, nothing good comes from originality. (I joke.)
Distributor: Paramount
Director: Christopher McQuarrie (Jack Reacher, The Way of the Gun)
Writer: Christopher McQuarrie, Drew Pearce
Cast: Tom Cruise, Simon Pegg, Rebecca Ferguson, Jeremy Renner, Sean Harris, Alec Baldwin, Ving Rhames, Simon McBurney, Tom Hollander
Genre: Action, Thriller
Rating: PG013
What It’s About: Ethan Hunt (Tom Cruise) is on the run after the IMF is shut down by his government and he discovers that a secret terrorist organization called The Syndicate is looking to cause chaos with a series of operations and a mysterious double agent named Ilsa Faust (Rebecca Ferguson) keeps showing up to help Ethan and his team.
Benefits:
As the summer starts winding down, we still have a couple more sequels and tentpoles trying to take advantage of the slower weeks when many people go on vacation. This week, we get a movie that could give a much-needed bump to the box office, because it’s the fifth installment in a franchise reliable enough to span almost 20 years with just four previous movies.
Back in the ‘80s and ‘90s, Tom Cruise was one of the biggest A-list box office stars–and to many he still is–but part of what really solidified that status was when he starred in the first Mission: Impossible in 1996, which became his fourth movie to gross $150 million at a time when that was still a big deal. Its $45.4 million opening in 3,012 theaters was also impressive for the time. In the 19 years since, Cruise has been able to return to the franchise when other things in his life and career weren’t going so well and it helped remind everyone why he was one of the world’s biggest superstars. The highest-grossing movie of the series domestically was 2000’s Mission: Impossible 2 directed by John Woo, but that was nearly matched by the most recent one, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol. In fact, Mission: Impossible III is the lowest grossing, and wait a second… you’re probably thinking, “Why doesn’t he just give us a nice chart with all this information like he used to do?”
BOOM!
So there we go, it’s all fairly clear now with the most recent “Mission: Impossible” being the most popular both among critics and fans even if it’s odd Christmas and IMAX roll-out makes it hard to determine how much it would make in a standard opening weekend. Still, we’re looking at a franchise that has two movies grossing over $200 million.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation reteams Cruise with Christopher McQuarrie, who wrote and directed the crime-thriller Jack Reacher, which earned $80 million after being released a year after “Ghost Protocol.” It also reunites Cruise with some of the popular actors from previous installments, including Simon Pegg from the last three movies, Ving Rhames who has been around since the first Mission: Impossible, and Jeremy Renner, who joined with “Ghost Protocol.” They’re joined by Alec Baldwin, Sean Harris as the main bad guy, and up ‘n’ comer Rebecca Ferguson, who plays the movie’s femme fatale.
So far, the movie has overwhelmingly positive reviews (which puzzles the one person who was disappointed in the movie’s lack of originality, i.e. me) which should certainly help generate interest in the days leading up to the movie’s release on Friday, and if fans like the movie as much, word-of-mouth will help it bringing in solid business all weekend. Fortunately, other blockbusters like Jurassic World have started to lose theaters and other movies like Terminator Genisys have failed to find the audience that was expected.
As with “Ghost Protocol,” Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation is getting a big push through the IMAX corporation with the movie’s five-minute prologue showing in front of IMAX screenings of Terminator Genisys earlier this month. That might have been a bigger deal if that movie did better, but it did help raise interest in the movie among those who pay for movie premiums like IMAX. Since IMAX tickets cost more money, that should help give the movie a nice boost if more people choose to see it in that format
Drawbacks:
There’s still some apprehension out there about supporting Cruise after he went off the rails roughly ten years ago. While he’s certainly had his fair share of hits (such as the last “Mission: Impossible”), he’s also had some expensive blockbusters that disappointed, at least domestically. His last movie Edge of Tomorrow barely made $100 million in North America and even the $269 million made overseas barely covered the $175 million price tag. His previous movie, Oblivion, ended up with $89 million domestic despite a $120 million cost and other films like Knight & Day and Valkyrie didn’t attain the $100 million bottom line of most previous Cruise films.
The previous summer installments of the franchise opened in May, the first two over Memorial Day and then the third kicking off the summer, so moving the fourth movie to Christmas was an interesting strategy. Opening Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation later in July may actually hurt it since it’s opening after months of sequels, some of which have been received better than others, and moviegoers may be burnt out on them at this point.
Prediction:
The move to the summer is going to give the movie a big push for its opening weekend, allowing it to make somewhere in the $55 to 60 million range opening weekend, maybe even higher, and though it has some competition in the coming weeks for the older male audience (notably, Fantastic Four and The Man from UNCLE), it should be able to push its away to $180 to 200 million based on word-of-mouth, which is on par with the previous movies.
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation Review
Vacation
Distributor: New Line/Warner Bros.
Writers/Directors: John Francis Daley, Jonathan Goldstein (feature debut by writers of Horrible Bosses and The Incredible Burt Wonderstone)
Cast:Ed Helms, Christina Applegate, Leslie Mann, Skyler Gisondo, Steele Stebbins, Chris Hemsworth, Chevy Chase, Beverly D’Angelo
Genre: Comedy
Rating: R
What It’s About: 30 years after the pivotal family trip to Walley World, Rusty Griswold (Ed Helms) convinces his family (and himself) that the best way for his family to bond is to take a similar road trip across the country as they face all sorts of hurdles along the way.
Benefits:
Back in 1983, when the comedy magazine National Lampoon was at the height of its popularity, they decided to create a follow-up to their comedy hit Animal House with a comedy vehicle starring “Saturday Night Live” star Chevy Chase called National Lampoon’s Vacation, which grossed $63 million and led to two sequels that did equally well, but it was that first movie that really made a mark becoming a comedy classic. 32 years to the date after the release of the original Vacation, New Line is trying to recreate that magic with a movie that’s not a remake or a reboot as much as a direct sequel to the movie. They even got Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo to reprise their roles with the original kids, Rusty and Audrey, now played by Ed Helms and Leslie Mann.
This one is a comedy vehicle for Ed Helms, the star of NBC’s “The Office” whose career really took off when he was cast by Todd Phillips as part of the cast of The Hangover, which opened in June 2009 to $45 million and grossed $468 million worldwide, raising Helms’ status as a comedy star. After two more “Hangover” movies, he played a supporting role in 2013’s We’re the Millers, which was another hit with $150 million domestic. So casting Helms as the older Rusty Griswold makes perfect sense.
Fortunately, he doesn’t have to carry the movie himself as his wife is played by Christina Applegate of “Married with Children” and Anchorman fame, and the cast is rounded out by Leslie Mann (as the older Audrey), Charlie Day and Chris Hemsworth in an uncharacteristically comedic role that plays on his charisma and physique.
While Judd Apatow gets a lot of credit for the success of R-rated comedy, it probably can be traced back to some of the offerings by New Line, which includes the “Harold and Kumar” movies but more importantly, the Vince Vaughn-Owen Wilson comedy Wedding Crashers, which grossed $209 million domestically a month before the release of The 40-Year-Old Virgin.
The name-brand of the movie being called Vacation should help the movie two-fold, first among those who know the original Chevy Chase movies and secondly, because it’s summer and so many people go on vacations that it’s a great source of humor for most. The original Vacation opened in summer (this same weekend in fact) and did very well and that should be true with the sequel as well.
Opening early on Wednesday should help it take advantage of the slower box office and bring in some business before Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation clobbers everything on Friday. This was the tactic that We Are the Millers took two years ago and while it only made $6 million and $5 million its first two days, it picked up even more on the weekend, taking 2nd place with $26.4 million closely behind the clear favorite for that weekend, Elysium.
Drawbacks:
While we’ve had a lot of remakes over the years, comedy remakes aren’t that common, maybe because it’s hard to do them right and the originals tend to be so beloved that they have to try even harder to win over audiences. That said, Adam Sandler has been quite successful with his remakes of The Longest Yard and Mr. Deeds while family remakes of Freaky Friday, The Nutty Professor and Cheaper by the Dozen have all been successful, although it’s always about putting a comedy star in the lead i.e. a much bigger star than Ed Helms is right now. You can’t ignore the fact that even a superstar like Ben Stiller bombed with his remake of The Heartbreak Kid in 2007 while teaming him with comedy filmmakers, the Farrelly Brothers (who also brought The Three Stooges back to movie theaters). He only did slightly better with his own remake of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.
Reviews probably won’t be good a.) Because critics don’t seem to like comedies unless they star mouthy blondes and b.) Because critics generally hate remakes. These are two facts that have been proven time and time again, and there’s nothing about Vacation that shows that critics will be any more kind than they were to last week’s Pixels. Then again, reviews also don’t matter much when moviegoers have their mind set on seeing something and We’re the Millers, which only scored 47% on RottenTomatoes, proved that. (I expect Vacation to end up between 20-30%.)
While opening on Wednesday might help Vacation take advantage of the slim pickins at the box office, it will also cut into the weekend box office since when given a choice between an R-rated comedy remake and MI5, between Helms and Tom Cruise, the latter just seems to be a stronger choice at least for older guys.
The R rating might hurt the movie since a PG-13 version would probably bring in older kids, but parents who know that this is much raunchier than the original movie (which also was rated R) will be wary of bringing their kids.
Prediction:
With its Wednesday opening, Vacation should have a couple days to make a mark before Mission: Impossible arrives and cuts into its potential male audience, so we can see it doing $5 to 6 million on Wednesday, plus $3 to 4 million more on Thursday and then the weekend will depend on word-of-mouth (since reviews won’t help). I think it’s still good for another $20 million plus on the weekend and probably $70 to 80 million total domestic, possibly even more with only Trainwreck offering any direct comedy competition.
Vacation Review
This Weekend Last Year
Looks like we have a rare “bye week” because the last weekend in July/first week in August was Hercules and Lucy, which we covered last week.
This Week’s Predictions
Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation shouldn’t have much trouble winning the box office this weekend, but the question is by how much and whether it will continue the franchise’s winning streak. Vacation will takes second place and we’ll see if audiences like the movie more than critics do.
1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation (Paramount) – $56.7 million N/A
2. Vacation (New Line/WB) – $24.3 million N/A
3. Ant-Man (Disney/Marvel) – $13 million -48%
4. Minions (Universal) – $12.2 million -45%
5. Pixels (Sony) – $11.5 million -52%
6. Trainwreck (Universal) – $10.4 million -40%
7. Southpaw (The Weinstein Co.) – $9.2 million -46%
8. Paper Towns (Fox) – $5.7 million -55%
9. Inside Out (Disney•Pixar) – $5 million -35%
10. Jurassic World (Universal) – $4.3 million -40%
Next Week:
The month of August kicks off the last superhero movie of the year as 20th Century Fox once again tries to revive Marvel Comics’ first family Fantastic Four while three other movies will open trying to bring in some late summer moviegoers with Joel Edgerton’s The Gift (STX Entertainment) going for fans of horror and thrillers, older music fans looking into Meryl Streep’s rock drama Ricki and the Flash (Sony), and kids and animation fans checking out Aardman Studios’ Shaun the Sheep Movie (Lionsgate).
This Week’s Must-Sees
This week is mostly about the documentaries although there’s one movie from Sundance that’s excellent and well worth checking out and that’s…
The End of the Tour (A24)
Director: James Ponsoldt (The Spectacular Now, Smashed)
Stars: Jason Segel, Jesse Eisenberg, Joan Cusack, Mamie Gummer, Anna Chlumsky, Mickey Sumner
Genre: Drama
What It’s About: Rolling Stone writer David Lipsky (Jesse Eisenberg) convinces his editor to let him do a spotlight piece on the hot new author David Foster Wallace (Jason Segel) whose book “Infinite Jest” is taking the country by storm. Lipsky travels out to Wallace’s home in the Midwest and goes with him to a book reading in Minnesota, trying to get dirt on Wallace’s drug use and suicide attempts while acting friendly to the eccentric author.
Interview with Director James Ponsoldt
Interview with Jesse Eisenberg
Interview with Jason Segel (Next week!)
Best of Enemies (Magnolia)
Director: Robert Gordon, Morgan Neville
Stars: Gore Vidal, William F. Buckley
Genre: Documentary
What It’s About: In 1968, two political foes were called upon to add commentary to ABC’s coverage of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions but little did people know what would happen when you put liberal Gore Vidal and conservative William F. Buckley Jr. on air together except that it helped pave the way for political coverage on television to this day
It opens in select cities including New York and L.A. and you can find out when it’s playing near you on the official Magnolia site.
A LEGO Brickumentary (RADiUS-TWC)
Director: Kief Davidson, Daniel Junge
Stars: Jason Bateman (narrator)
Genre: Documentary
What It’s About: A comprehensive look at the world of LEGOs from artists who use the bricks to create their artwork to the Master Builders using them to make movies and many of the AFOLS (Adult Fans of LEGO) who are obsessed with what once was considered a kid’s toy. It opens in select cities on Firday.
Other Limited Releases of Note:
I Am Chris Farley (Virgil Films)
Director: Derik Murray, Brent Hodge
Stars: Chris Farley, Christina Applegate, Dan Aykroyd, Mike Myers, Adam Sandler, Molly Shannon, David Spade, Kevin Farley
Genre: Documentary
What It’s About: This documentary looks at the life and career of the “Saturday Night Live” star whose life was cut short in his prime, as told by his family and some of the many comedians who considered him their friend.
Listen to Me Marlon
Writer/Director: Stevan Farley
Stars: Marlon Brando
Genre: Documentary
What It’s About: A portrait of one of the 20th Century’s most respected and enigmatic actors put together from 300 hours of newly-discovered recordings of Brando talking about all aspects of his career and life.
Two Step
Writer/Director: Alex R. Johnson
Stars: Skyy Moore, James Landry Hébert, Jason Douglas, Beth Broderick, Ashley Rae Spillers
Genre: Thriller
What It’s About: After being kicked out of college, James (Skyy Moore) returns home to discover that his Grams has died after being scammed out of tons of money by a convict named Webb (James Landry Hebert) pretending to be James. Webb then turns up looking for money to pay his debts and with Grams not around, James will have to get him the money. It opens in New York at the Village East Cinemas on Friday, then in L.A. on August 7 before going to VOD on September 1.
The Young and Prodigious Spivet (The Weinstein Co.)
Director: Jean-Pierre Jeunet
Stars: Helena Bonham Carter, Robert Maillet, Niamh Wilson, Judy Davis, Callum Keith Rennie, Dominique Pinon, Kyle Catlett, Jakob Davies
Genre: Family, Animation
What It’s About: Based on the novel by Reif Larsen, the animated fantasy from Jean-Pierre Jeunet (Amelie, The City of Lost Children) involves a 12-year-old cartographer who leaves his family’s ranch in Montana to travel across the country on board a freight train so he can accept an award from the Smithsonian Institute. Opening in about 100 theaters in select cities.
Jenny’s Wedding (IFC Films)
Writer/Director: Mary Agnes Donoghue
Stars: Katherine Heigl, Tom Wilkinson, Alexis Bledel, Linda Emond, Grace Gummer
Genre: Comedy, Romance
What It’s About: When Jenny (Katherine Heigl) finally decides to get married, it causes a massive amount of turmoil in her family despite her parents (Wilkinson, Emond) really hoping their daughter would settle down, because of who she chooses to marry. (I have this sinking feeling from the description that Jenny is marrying another woman, just to show how low we’ve fallen in terms of using marriage equality as a source of comedy.)
Counting (Cinema Guild)
Director: Jem Cohen
Genre: Documentary
What It’s About: In his follow-up to Museum Hours, Cohen creates a 15-part portrait of contemporary life shot in places like Moscow, New York and Istanbul.
6 Ways to Die (Entertainment One)
Writer/Director: Nadeem Soumah
Stars: Vinnie Jones, Dominique Swain, Vivica A. Fox, Tom Sizemore, Bai Ling
Genre: Action
What It’s About: It’s an action movie starring Vinnie Jones, Tom Sizemore and Bai Ling. What more do you need to know?
You can post any comments or questions below, or you can get in touch with the Weekend Warrior on Twitter.
Copyright 2015 Edward Douglas
