TWO POSSIBLE SLEEPERS, SURPRISES
Director James Wan’s first movie Saw, co-written with his friend Leigh Whannell, was a huge hit that became a successful horror franchise, and when they reunited for 2011’s Insidious, it also made waves. Now he’s taking on a true horror story with The Conjuring (Warner Bros. July 19) based on a particularly vexing case for supernaturalists Ed and Lorraine Warren, as played by Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga. The first trailer was absolutely terrifying and horror fans looking for something different than the normal summer fare are going to be thrilled to what’s one of only two horror movies this summer. We wouldn’t be surprised if this proves to be the movie everyone wants to see in a busy weekend with RED 2 and R.I.P.D. and then word-of-mouth keeps it going to the tune of $70 million or more.
There’s no denying the popularity of Rick Riordan’s mythological reconstructions in his popular series of kids’ books and Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (20th Century Fox August 7) puts Logan Lerman back in the role of the popular character along with Brandon T. Jackson and Alexandra Daddario back at his side. The original movie Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief, directed by Chris “Harry Potter” Columbus, grossed $89 million in February 2010 and this sequel looks even better. Heck, we wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up being better than the 300: Rise of an Empire, which opens five days earlier. Wisely, Fox moved it earlier in the month because opening a family film in the second half of August is certain doom since families are on vacations and some schools start up early. But we feel good that this one could offer some real solid numbers against Matt Damon’s Elysium and the presumably R-rated We’re the Millers
And with that, here comes .
The Weekend Warrior’s Summer Top 15
I’ve placed an asterisk next to two or three which I feel could break out and do even bigger business depending on word-of-mouth, quality.
1. Iron Man 3 (Marvel Studios/Disney May 2)
$155 million opening – $405 million total
2. Monsters University (DisneyPixar – June 21)
$85 million opening – $315 million
3. Man of Steel (Warner Bros. June 14)
$88 million opening – $296 million total
4. Despicable Me 2 (Universal July 3)
Weds. & Thurs. $33 million; weekend: $54 million – $275 million total
5. Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount May 15)
$103 million opening – $268 million total
6. Fast & Furious 6 (Universal May 24)
$105 million (4-day) opening – $220 million total
7. The Wolverine (20th Century Fox July 26)
$78 million opening – $170 million total
8. The Hangover Part III (Warner Bros. – May 24)
$74 million (4-day) weekend – $168 million total
9. White House Down (Sony – June 28)
$48 million weekend – $153 million total*
9. The Smurfs 2 (Sony July 31)
Weds. & Thurs $20 million; $31 million weekend; $133 million total
10. Grown Ups 2 (Sony July 12)
$42 million opening – $128 million total
11. Turbo (DreamWorks Animation/Fox July 17)
$38 million (5-day) opening – $125 million
12. Pacific Rim (Legendary/WB July 12)
$45 million opening – $120 million total*
13. The Heat (20th Century Fox June 28)
$26 million opening – $115 million total*
14. The Lone Ranger (Disney July 3)
Weds. & Thurs $26 million; weekend $28 million – $115 million total
15. Elysium (Sony – August 9)
$35 million opening – $110 million total*
Bubbling Under i.e. Potential Breakouts
2 Guns (Universal – August 2)
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (20th Century Fox August 16)
The Conjuring (Warner Bros. July 19)
We’re the Millers (Warner Bros. – August 9)
This is the End (Sony – June 12)
Bonafide Bombs (based on cost)
300: Rise of an Empire (Warner Bros. – August 2)
The Lone Ranger (Disney July 3)
World War Z (Paramount – June 21)
And that’s about it for now. We’ll hopefully be back to our normal Weekend Warriors schedule and health permitting as well as Long Distance Box offices and maybe we’ll get some more surprises sometime between as the summer kicks off an all of you lovely readers flock the cinema with your iPhones and cell phones and beepers and stuff.
I also want to give a quick shout-out to the lovely gentleman of the Movie Moan Podcast who had me on their show with BoxOffice.com’s Shawn Robbins to talk about this stuff more at length a few weeks back.
You can read stuff like this and regular box office, awards and festival coverage on the Weekend Warrior Blog and to keep up with the latest articles and posts, you can follow us on Twitter.
