It’s that time of year again–or rather, it’s quite a bit later than that time of year again–but the Oscar Warrior is hellbent on continuing to cover this year’s Oscar race even if I’m not going as crazy with the posts as the full-time Oscar bloggers tend to do. The Golden Globes have announced their nominations, as have the Screen Actors Guild and Broadcast Film Critics, a number of critics groups and the National Board of Review have announced their top movies and performances of the year, and we can slowly start weeding out the frontrunners from the also-rans with a few potential surprises possible when Oscar nominations are announced the morning of January 16, 2014.
I’m going to do this a little differently and take this update on a movie-by-movie basis and I’m going to go through them in alphabetical order. I’ve picked 19 movies that I still think are very much in the mix when it comes to possible Oscar nominations and sometime in January I’ll post a list of my final predictions, although they’re also archived on GoldDerby if you don’t feel like waiting that long.
I might have a couple more Oscar updates going into the New Year and if anything surprising happens with the Oscar nominations on January 16, 2014, I’ll probably be writing something about that as well.
Oscar Warrior 2013: Where We At?
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Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio's edgiest film to date is a hard R-rated look at the world of Wall Street and while it's going to get some support at least for its screenplay and possibly even enough votes for Best Picture, it's definitely playing second fiddle to Russell's American Hustle due to its late roll-out. Technical categories like editing are possible, but I'm not sure it will get any acting nods. We'll see how it plays over the holidays.
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<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=89014">Saving Mr. Banks</a>
John Lee Hancock's look behind the scenes of the making of Mary Poppins definitely has the nostalgia factor working for it, but as we saw with last year's Hitchcock, not everyone in Hollywood wants to honor themselves. Even so, Emma Thompson's performance as P.L. Travers is impossible to ignore and she's guaranteed a nod. Tom Hanks as Walt Disney probably will be snubbed. Best Picture nomination? It's definitely crowd-pleasing enough to get support. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=81316">Rush</a>
Back when I first saw this movie pre-Toronto, I really hoped it would be a contender because it's just such a well-made film, but with a poor showing at the box office, the movie's best bet is a supporting actor nomination for Daniel Bruhl for an unforgettable performance as racer Niki Lauda. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=53514">Prisoners</a>
This dark thriller starring Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal generated a lot of buzz out of Telluride and Toronto and there were thoughts it might get some awards attention, but the acting categories are already too crowded and with no precursor awards or nominations, it's only chance is another cinematography nod for Roger Deakins... which he'll lose to Gravity. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=95313">Philomena</a>
Director Stephen Frears reunites with Dame Judi Dench for a moving portrait of an elderly woman trying to find the son that was taken away from her by nuns 50 years earlier. With a terrific awards-worthy script co-written by her co-star Steve Coogan--who is also great--the film's best bet is Dench for her 7th Oscar nomination, but don't be surprised if the screenplay gets some love as well. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=83327">Nebraska</a>
Alexander Payne's Midwest road dramedy is getting a lot of support in the industry, mainly due to the welcome return of Bruce Dern and his first awards attention in 34 years. But it also has a great original script by Bob Nelson and a fantastic supporting performance by June Squibb as Dern's nagging wife, and I wouldn't be surprised if this gets Payne back into the Best Picture race. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=50689">Lee Daniel's The Butler</a>
This era-spanning story about the Civil Rights movement and a White House employee who saw history happening from inside the government seemed like a shoe-in for some Oscar love, but being snubbed by the Golden Globes is not a good sign even if it got three nominations from the Screen Actors Guild. It still has a chance at a Best Picture nomination and a supporting nod for Oprah Winfrey, but the Weinstein Company better get back behind this or it's vapor. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=79004">Inside Llewyn Davis</a>
The latest from the Coen Brothers, their first movie in three years, has been getting almost as much critical love as some of the other movies and received three Golden Globes thanks to the HFPA's comedy/musical category. I was hoping Oscar Isaac had a chance at an acting nomination, but it seems unlikely and the movie is completely snubbed in the Original Song category, so we'll just have to see if it gets support for its screenplay and a possible Best Picture nod. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=89621">Her</a>
Spike Jonze's technological romantic drama already has won many awards, including top prize from the National Board of Review, and has made it onto many year-end Top 10 lists, and the Academy screenwriters branch are sure to appreciate Jonze's screenplay, but any acting nominations are doubtful and it might be too weird for the Academy at large compared to other choices. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=64232">Gravity</a>
Alfonso Cuaron's outer-space thriller still has its cache of support mainly for Cuaron's direction, the technical aspects of the movie--Emmanuel Lubezki is more than likely to win his first Oscar for his cinematography--as well as for Sandra Bullock's performance. Personally, I'd love to see another split year where Cuaron wins as director even if Gravity doesn't win Best Picture, but it should fare very well on Oscar night regardless. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=99154">Fruitvale Station</a>
The clear prizewinner at this year's Sundance Film Festival, that's put a lot of focus on first-time director Ryan Coogler and his star Michael B. Jordan, seems to be slipping by the wayside and without a concentrated push by the Weinstein Company, its best bet is an Original Screenplay nod and some Indie Spirits awards. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=45705">Dallas Buyers Club</a>
This stirring drama set in the early days of the HIV virus follows Matthew McConaughey's overly-heterosexual Ron Woodroof as he smuggles drugs that haven't been approved by the FDA into the States. McConaughey is almost guaranteed a nomination following his Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nods, and his supporting castmate Jared Leto may actually win in his category for transforming into a flamboyant transgender. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=55898">Captain Phillips</a>
Paul Greengrass' striking thriller based on Captain Richard Phillips' kidnapping by Somali pirates got a lot of early support but may have been supplanted by other releases since coming out. Despite a very crowded lead actor category, Tom Hanks seem likely for his sixth nomination for his moving performance. I'd be equally thrilled to see first-time Somali actor Barkhad Abdi receive a nomination for holding his own against Hanks and Paul Greengrass is generally appreciated by his directing peers, giving him a good shot at a second Oscar nomination. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=87952">Blue Jasmine</a>
Woody Allen's latest drama certainly has its fans, and mainly it's for the portrayal of the title character by Cate Blanchett, the clear frontrunner in the Best Actress race, but Allen's screenplay could very well receive his 15th nomination in that category and I'd love to see Sally Hawkins get a supporting nod. Best Picture nod? It's possible but a particularly tough year with stronger movies. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=98534">Before Midnight</a>
The third installment of Richard Linklater's long-running relationship dramedy brings Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy to Greece and while both actors deserve accolades for their performances, the movie's best bet is its adapted screenplay and a surprise Best Picture nod if enough industry types like it as much as the critics. -
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Another movie that on paper was thought to be a clear frontrunner, especially with an amazing cast of previous Oscar winners and nominees plus the film's stage pedigree. Critical reaction to the dark "comedy" based on Tracy Letts' play has been muted since its Toronto debut, so a Best Picture nod may be tough (even with a SAG Ensemble precursor in place), but I do think Roberts is a shoe-in to get a supporting nomination and it's hard to ignore Streep's own explosive performance. Adapted screenplay is another possibility, but this really is one that the actors are rallying behind.
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<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=88270">American Hustle</a>
David O. Russell's star-studded caper comedy was thought of as an Oscar contender before anyone had a chance to see it and with the amount of Golden Globes nominations it's received--all four main actors received nominations--plus nods for O. Russell as director and screenplay, there's a good chance some of those will carry over to the Oscar nominations. Some might see this as this year's Argo or it might be seen more as Boogie Nights - either way it's going to get a lot of nominations and is a shoe-in to win for screenplay. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=105649">All is Lost</a>
At this point, the chances of J.C. Chandor's second feature to get much love beyond a possible leading actor nomination for Robert Redford and maybe a nod for its stark cinematography is somewhat doubtful, because the mostly silent movie just doesn't have as much support as some of the other movies. -
<a href="https://comingsoon.preprod.vip.gnmedia.net/films.php?id=83109">12 Years a Slave</a>
Steve McQueen's dramatic adaptation of Solomon Northup's harrowing memoir of a free black man tricked into slavery has been all the talk since its Telluride and Toronto debuts with multiple nominations for Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong'o and Michael Fassbender in all acting categories including Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild. Many of the precursor groups nominated it for Best Picture, Director, Screenplay and tech awards, giving it the most nominations both at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, making it a clear frontrunner on Oscar night.
